There are also indications that the administration may expand the use of Section 232—previously applied to steel and aluminum imports—to additional sectors under the national security framework. In practice, this would allow elevated trade barriers to remain in place despite earlier legal constraints.

At the same time, questions persist regarding potential refunds of previously collected duties. According to reports from Bloomberg, the process could be complicated by procedural hurdles, raising concerns about the credibility and predictability of economic policy in the United States. Nevertheless, investors continue to treat U.S. assets as relatively safe—demand for Treasuries remains strong, with 10-year yields declining to around 4.03%.

Currencies: Dollar Benefits, Yen Under Pressure

In currency markets, the U.S. dollar maintains its advantage, supported by global uncertainty and capital flows into perceived safe-haven assets. Among the weakest currencies is the Japanese yen, weighed down by expectations that any rate hikes by the Bank of Japan would be gradual and insufficient to offset expansionary fiscal policy in Japan.

Meanwhile, some commodity-linked currencies are staging modest rebounds. The Norwegian krone and the British pound also show relative strength, although it remains unclear whether this marks the beginning of a sustained trend or merely a technical correction.

Commodities and Geopolitics: Oil Elevated, Metals Stable

Commodity markets continue to reflect heightened volatility. Oil prices remain elevated amid tensions surrounding Iran and speculation about potential military escalation by the United States.

Precious metals, after a brief pullback, are stabilizing, with investor demand remaining strong in an environment of rising risk aversion. The return of market participants from China following Lunar New Year celebrations has not materially altered the broader trend.

EUR/USD Under Pressure from Trade Risks

The prospect of escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and the European Union continues to weigh on the euro. The decision by the European Parliament to suspend ratification of the EU–U.S. trade agreement increases the risk of retaliatory measures, including new tariffs on selected sectors.

Despite earlier signs of improving economic momentum in the euro area, growing political uncertainty may limit the currency’s upside potential. Technically, EUR/USD remains below the 1.18 level, signaling persistent downside pressure. A sustained break below recent lows would likely confirm a deeper weakening trend for the euro.

Key Macroeconomic Events

Investors are focusing on leading economic indicators released by the Conference Board, along with speeches from central bank officials that may provide guidance on the future direction of monetary policy across major economies.

But that's not where the story ends.
It's where it begins.

As AI chatbots seep into everyday life, demand for inference is exploding. Inference is when AI takes your request and figures out an answer. And with it, the cost of inference — the cost of running a trained model every time someone queries it — is exploding too. For OpenAI, that bill for 2024 is projected to hit around $2.3 billion, roughly 15× its training costs.

And here comes the plot twist: Meta and OpenAI are reportedly moving toward Google's TPUs — Google's homegrown chips — to run their own models because they are cheaper to operate while offering comparable performance. Both Meta and OpenAI are said to be seeking up to 4× better performance-per-dollar on inference workloads.

And inference is the next big thing because it never stops: every time you chat with a bot, the cost accumulates. Inference costs are projected to make up almost three-quarters of total AI computing costs by 2030.

So the world's biggest AI players could be shifting toward Google's TPUs — cheaper, more tailored to AI workloads — and potentially replacing Nvidia.
Read that again.

That's a real risk for Nvidia, whose client base is nearly half made up of these same Big Tech giants. This is why — on top of the accounting drama that hit the company last week — the stock shed another 2.60% yesterday, while Google rallied to a fresh ATH.

In the meantime, Meta boosted its ad revenue thanks to AI, but its long-term business model is unclear. Meta is spending billions to transform its social media platforms into AI-content platform — a direction that risks disengaging users. Its Llama model is rarely mentioned in enterprise-grade discussions, and its oversized compute spending could backfire. Unlike Google, which can simply rent excess compute through its existing cloud offering, Meta must actually build that business from scratch.

Outside the US, Alibaba's AI efforts may be paying off. The company announced a stronger-than-expected 34% growth in its cloud business, that helped counterweigh their spending on consumer subsidies and AI investments. But the numbers couldn't bring investors on board. The share price is struggling to a reverse October – November softness.

In summary, Nvidia is being broadly questioned, Meta may be hitting its potential, while Amazon is the one Big Tech name that could benefit meaningfully from robotics when the time is right.

But right now, Google suddenly seems to have it all: the data, the data centres, the chips, the AI model and the interface. It might well be the next $5 trillion beast. And if you think about it, Alibaba also has many of these assets. It's got the data, the data centres, its own chips, its AI model, its e-commerce empire, and incredible reach within China and beyond. So if you believe the future is "everything under one roof," Alibaba is - has always been - a strong candidate.

What about Nvidia? Nvidia has been struggling since its latest earnings blew up in its hands as investors focused on swelling inventories and deferred payments. The company has been compared to Enron, booed because of the Google-TPU news, and are now defending themselves by saying "we're not Enron" and "we are happy for Google." Their main argument is that Google's TPUs are designed for one specific function, whereas Nvidia's GPUs are compatible with every AI model. But will that matter if companies simply want chips that do the job cheaply and efficiently?

So, the moment has come ladies and gentlemen: competition for Nvidia is arriving from an unexpected direction. That could eat into its revenue potential and market share. Everyone is waiting to see how Nvidia will respond — by expanding customers beyond Big Tech, rolling out more inference-friendly GPUs, or pushing deeper into cost-competitive partnerships. We'll soon find out.

Meanwhile, US consumer sentiment is waning. More than half of the strong US GDP this year came from massive AI investment. Yesterday's retail sales and PPI came in soft — softer than expected — although major retailers upgraded their annual forecasts and said the holiday season should look fine.

And if not, the Fed will be there to save the day. The probability of a 25bp cut rose to around 85% after the latest data. The US dollar slipped below its 200-DMA, helping the EURUSD break above the September–November bearish consolidation trend.

Cable also extended gains into today's Budget announcement— an announcement that might bite. There have been plenty of leaks about where Rachel Reeves will squeeze out £30bn to get the numbers right and keep both markets and households happy. Ultimately, no one will be fully satisfied.

The good news is that stress in gilt markets has been contained over the past few days. The bad news is that yields are near the levels reached during the Liz Truss mini-budget crisis three years ago, and Reeves has the smallest fiscal headroom on record — giving her zero margin for error. After today's Budget, we'll have a clearer view on whether the measures will be enough to keep gilt markets tidy and whether they are deflationary enough to convince the Bank of England to cut rates in December — which I think they will be. If so, current levels look appetizing for GBP sellers.

The US 2-year yield, which best captures Fed rate expectations, slipped below 3.50% this morning for the first time since October 29 — after the Fed had cut rates by 25 bp but Powell had warned that a December cut was not a done deal.

What changed since then? Well, not much really. Or maybe things have changed, but we don't yet know in what direction, because a few days after the Fed's decision the US government shut down — and remained closed for more than a month — meaning the official data flow largely stopped until last week.

When it resumed, September's NFP data showed that the US economy may have added 120k new nonfarm jobs before the shutdown, but wage growth slowed and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. And we still haven't seen the full inflation picture. CPI data reportedly won't arrive until after the Fed's December meeting.

So we must guess: we know US jobs data is weakening, but we don't know if inflation is heating up. Subdued energy prices certainly keep inflation in check, but we don't know how much this offsets the impact of tariffs. The latest CPI printed an inflation rate of 3% in the US — significantly above the Fed's 2% target — and we continue to believe inflation could rise due to tariffs, now that pre-tariff stocks have been sold and companies may need to pass some costs onto consumers.

I see three possible Fed scenarios for December.

1.     The Fed refrains from cutting rates, waiting for inflation data to ensure they're cutting based on facts, not hope. Short-term yields rebound, risk assets may be disappointed, and the following data shapes January expectations — likely pushing the rate cut further out.

2.     The Fed cuts and CPI data comes in line — or ideally softer than expected, with hints of no tariff-led inflation. Bulls rush in, stress over tech valuations and accounting rules fades, Santa arrives with gifts, and the party could continue.

3.     The Fed cuts but CPI prints hotter than expected the week after. The idea that the Fed should walk back the latest rate cut injects stress and volatility, potentially triggering a 10-15% S&P 500 selloff as hopes for further cuts vanish.

I can't tell you what's on the menu. But the probability of a December rate cut just spiked past 80% over the past two sessions. The last time we saw Fed rate expectations change that fast — September 2024 — the last-minute 50 bp cut turned out to be a mistake, and the Fed had to pause for a year before moving again. Did it prevent the bulls from buying? Not really.

Anyway, it's always fun to watch the data. Today, the US will release its latest PPI and retail sales. Last week's results from big US retailers suggest the consumer isn't cracking — but is clearly tightening the purse strings as higher prices and borrowing costs bite. Retail sales may have slowed in September (which is good for those hoping for a 25 bp cut) and producer prices may have accelerated month-on-month but slowed year-on-year (mixed enough to let the market focus on the metric it prefers). But because data tells the past, what Fed members say is more important to investors than what prints. For now, investors are banking on another 25 bp cut — positive for sentiment.

US futures are flat to slightly negative this morning. The 10% drop in SoftBank reflects fears it bet on the wrong horse — OpenAI and Nvidia — following news that Alibaba's Qwen 3 counted more than 10 million downloads in its first week and Google's latest Gemini 3 earned praise for its progress in 3D reasoning, agentic abilities, and "vibe" coding. Here's a suggestion: the AI bubble may not burst entirely, but some parts could. Whatever happens, Google looks set to keep rallying like it's 2023!

In FX, the US dollar seems confused by the quick Fed-expectation swing. It looks very doji-like since spiking past the 200-DMA and hasn't been willing to move lower — partly because other majors like the yen and sterling look unappealing. For the yen, t the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hardly hike rates in the next meeting, as Takaichi doesn't want it, and JGB yields are spiking to levels that make the risk unappealing. For sterling, tomorrow's Budget is make-or-break: either the Bank of England (BoE) steps in to prevent a gilt flare-up if investors dislike what they hear, or to cushion the economy if tax hikes bite hard. Either way, the Fed will say the last word, but the dovish shift in other central bank stances could soften any renewed weakness in greenback.

The nerves are calmer this morning, but not fully so. Alibaba in China jumped 5% after announcing that its Qwen 3 model attracted more than 10 million followers and could rival ChatGPT. The company will report earnings tomorrow. The Kospi made a recovery attempt at the weekly open, but most gains were given back as we approached the European open. Japanese markets are closed, so we can't look at SoftBank to gauge how investors feel about the whole AI situation. At this point, it's safe to say that AI will outlive any potential market meltdown. But the short term looks a bit fragile for our favourite tech bros.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are slightly in the green following a modest improvement in investor mood on Friday after NY Fed President John Williams jumped in and poured some cold water on the overheated market by bringing the possibility of another near-term cut back to the table. Everyone heard that as a December rate cut, of course. The US 2-year yield fell back to 3.50% and the probability of a December cut jumped to 70% — from below 29% earlier in the same week. Holy!

Other Fed members kept repeating that it would be better to wait before doing anything more, just in case the inflation monster wakes up and throws fireballs everywhere. But no — one man, one dove — outweighed all the other members who sounded worried about inflation, which is still near 3% in the US and well above the Federal Reserve's (Fed) official target. In theory, the Fed should never have cut in September in the first place. Fun fact: we won't even get the most critical inflation report before the Fed meets for the last time this year. So, they will just have to sit there and bet. They won't decide — they will take a bet.

Meanwhile, consumer sentiment fell to the lowest levels on record in the US, even after Trump announced that he will lower tariffs on beef, tomatoes, coffee and bananas. The US dollar spent most of last week gaining ground against majors. The recovery was backed by a retreat in dovish Fed expectations before Williams' dovish comments on Friday. The greenback is under pressure this morning, but the Fed cut probabilities have themselves become shaky, so I'd say the chance of a December cut is still a coin toss. And again, in theory, a no-cut would be the reasonable path — especially given that the Fed will stop QT in December.

But sterling bears won't need help from dollar bulls to push Cable below 1.30 this week. Rachel Reeves could do that with grace on Wednesday when she announces the much-anticipated Autumn Budget — and potentially big tax hikes. At this point, no one knows what will come out of that Budget, but she might have to raise taxes by as much as £30bn. Disaster. We've been reading all week about the Fifty Shades of Taxes the Brits are facing — both at individual and company level. If I'm honest, I'm waiting for Season Two of the Mini-Budget crisis to unfold later this week if taxes don't match market expectations.

On a more optimistic note, such large tax hikes would be deflationary and could convince the Bank of England (BoE) to cut rates as soon as December to clean up part of the mess. And if — by miracle — Rachel Reeves gets this right, Cable could rebound and close the year above 1.30. But there is a good chance that we will see agitated waters for sterling and gilts this week than the contrary. The UK needs a solid plan to survive the series of poor fiscal decisions and return to growth. Higher taxes are good for the short run, but they kill growth in the long run.

According to a Financial Times analysis, 3,790 company directors reported leaving the UK between October 2024 (when Reeves' Budget hit) and July 2025, and a survey by Rathbones found that around 12% of SME owners said they are considering relocating either themselves or their business abroad because of tax concerns. Favourite destinations include the UAE, Spain and the US — of course. And given the market's unwillingness to finance British debt, the larger the outflow of taxpayers, the bigger the budget hole, and the heavier the tax burden for those who stay. So, prepare a tissue box for Wednesday. There will be tears — and not happy ones.

Coming back to why market sentiment turned from euphoria to drama: a few reports and analyst comments on Nvidia's own books started circulating yesterday, suggesting unease around two pressure points: swelling inventories and unusual patterns in deferred revenue. People started pointing out that Nvidia has built up large stockpiles of chips – partly because demand is shifting toward its next-generation Blackwell platform, and partly because US export controls have left billions' worth of H20 chips potentially unsellable, forcing a multi-billion-dollar write-down.

At the same time, it's been flagged that Nvidia has been taking in hefty pre-payments from customers and then recognising those payments as revenue too quickly, before chips are delivered. This is not illegal. It is a practice that can flatter near-term results but could leave a gap if future orders slow. And Nvidia may have done it to smooth out the avalanche of revenue it expects from Blackwell chip sales this year and next – Huang was talking about roughly $500bn in sales over that period. But together, the inventory overhang and the fast-cycling deferred revenue fuelled concerns that some of Nvidia's blockbuster growth may be front-loaded, with future quarters more exposed than the headlines suggest.

When you dig deep enough, you're sure to find dirt. And people only start digging when they begin to feel uncomfortable — and that level of discomfort is rising. Market opinion is becoming increasingly polarised between those who scream that this is a bubble and those who are willing to keep running. I believe this dynamic will lead to heightened volatility and big moves. It will be fun.

Also, the delayed data out of the US looks mixed and confusing. The September jobs data – released yesterday – was not only old and dusty, but also somewhat mixed. The report suggested that the US economy added nearly 120k new jobs in September, far above the 53k expected by analysts. The separate weekly report showed jobless claims falling to 220,000 – unexpectedly strong. That was the glass-half-full part. But the uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.4% and slowing wages were the glass-half-empty part – half-empty depending on whom, of course, since soft data fuels the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves and is often supportive for risk appetite.

But it didn't yesterday. The data helped the Fed doves gain field, but the AI worries and Nvidia rumours kept the upper hand. The sharp decline in US 2-year yields and the improved chance of a December cut couldn't talk the bulls in.

The good news is that Japanese yields are down from peak levels this morning – maybe inflation climbing to a 3-month high cooled the Bank of Japan (BoJ) doves. But it was hard to crack a smile out of SoftBank this morning: the shares tanked more than 10% and are down almost 40% since the October peak.

The crash in cryptocurrencies may be forcing investors to liquidate other positions – likely their tech bets. Bitcoin is testing the $86k level at the time of writing, and to be fair, there's nothing to stop the fall given that we have no idea what a coin is worth – other than the value we collectively give it.

So the week will end in a worse dilemma than where it started. Nvidia couldn't save the market. The Fed is still expected not to cut rates in December. Japanese yields kept pushing higher this week, and the 10-year JGB surpassed a critical level thought to trigger Japanese repatriation back home. That's roughly $3.4 trillion in overseas assets held by Japanese investors – from US Treasuries to tech and EM – that could, in theory, be pulled back home if domestic yields climb further. So the bubble talk is bubbling everywhere. The valuations are high, the problem diggers are out digging.

No one can tell if or when the balloon will burst or who will take the hit. And there is no guarantee that history will repeat itself. Yet comparing today's prices to past cycles is always interesting. Nasdaq, gold and Japanese assets show similar trends compared with the dot-com bubble, the gold boom of 1976–1982, and the Japanese bubble between 1986 and 1992. But today's prices are not even halfway to the past peaks. Again, I can't – and no one can – tell you whether this is going to be dot-com bubble 2.0 or Japanese asset bubble 2.0, but if history is any guide, bubbles tend to inflate well beyond what reason would suggest.

Remember: a financial bubble is not a bubble until it bursts.

On this note – I will leave it here and wish you a lovely weekend.

By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst

But what my crystal ball doesn't tell is how investors will react

Everyone is now focused on the worries that the huge spending its too high compared to revenue potential, and on the rising anxiety around the circularity of AI deals. Another one just dropped yesterday between Nvidia, Microsoft and Anthropic. The former two will invest a combined $15bn into Anthropic, and the latter will buy computing power from Microsoft's Azure that – in turn - will be powered by Nvidia chips. Told like this, the whole AI thing does sound like nothing more than a handful of companies sending each other billions of dollars without hints of money flowing inside the circle from outside. But it's like Mc Donalds buying beef and tomatoes for its burgers. It must do it. Eventually someone will buy the burger. But when, and how much burger is to be seen.

Add to that the fact that Japanese yields are now at levels where Japanese investors prefer bringing their money back to Japan

The 10-year Japanese government bond yield surpassed levels where borrowing yen and placing it in US Treasuries makes no money— after taking FX hedging costs into account. As a result, the Japanese pensions funds are reportedly pulling $1.1 trillion out of the US Treasuries right now – meaning that one of the biggest Treasury buyers is turning into a net seller. In plain English, the Japs may be pulling the rug from under the US Treasury market – that also affects riskier investments like tech, EM stocks and crypto. So maybe we will simply blame the Japanese if the Bank of Japan  BoJ) dares hiking rates come December... and that Santa remains stuck somewhere where there's still snow this Xmas.

But on a more optimistic note, I don't think the BoJ will gather enough courage to move rates higher. Provided the stress in JGBs, the BoJ Team certainly sees that a rate hike could trigger a budget-crisis scenario akin to what we saw with Liz Truss in the UK. And a severe earthquake in the JGB markets would then trigger a tsunami across global financial markets.

So, if markets don't turn risk-on after Jensen Huang pushes the 'on' button tonight, it may be time for a 10-20% correction

And of course, some love adding fuel to the fire saying that current Big Tech valuations are based on a US 10-year yield of around 2% — continuously — and so if someone comes out and says 'the emperor is naked' and the new 10-year benchmark is say nearer 3.5%, valuations could take a 30-40% hit. It's simple math: many favourite tech stocks trade 25-35 times their earnings. A readjustment of the discount rate could compress them to 18-22 times. So, either your price falls 30-40% or earnings grow strong enough to counteract the higher discount rate. But it's not that simple.

A month ago — when AI deals were flying in the air — your average tech investor would rather see earnings grow fast enough to neutralise the impact of higher US yields. Today, all they worry about is rising debt. And debt smells worse when borrowing costs mount... The mounting anxiety is pushing credit default spreads to levels some compare to banks just before the sub-prime crisis — with CoreWeave, Tesla, Inc. and Oracle Corporation occupying the top positions in the list of companies most expensive to hedge against default in the next half-decade.

But it's crazy we went from "AI is everything we always dreamed of" to "this is a worthless bubble" and "screw you OpenAI." But I can tell you: when an outage at Cloudflare disrupted OpenAI yesterday, and my ChatGPT gave a message saying that I should 'unblock challenges.cloudflare.com to proceed,' I didn't know where to go, what to do, who to ask — a small reminder that when ChatGPT is now around, it doesn't feel the same.

So, reason tells me there should be a midway between these two extremes — relentless rally and that 30-40% meltdown

 Nvidia and other chip companies will certainly continue to sell their chips and grow their fortune; tech companies will continue to develop their AI models, rent data-centres and sell their products to companies outside the tech buddies— say healthcare, banks, hairdressers, tax-offices, McDonalds and anything you could think of. Some will fail. Others will survive. And those who survive will eventually see revenue flow in. Someone will buy the burger.

As for spending, it will level out when the first booming phase is over. Maybe there will be a financial crisis before we get to the safer side of the bridge, but eventually the world will survive. If not, robots will come to the rescue. And while this happens, central banks will be there to temper any potential crisis and print money.

Stay well. Think positive — and maybe keep an eye on the Federal Reserve minutes — just in case!

By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst

The US is the largest natural gas consumer, using around 90 billion cubic feet per day, which is equivalent to more than 20% of global gas demand. US natural gas demand has grown at almost 5% per year over the last decade. This growth has coincided with the shale revolution, which has led to significant growth in US natural gas supply, offering consumers a cheap source of energy. This has come at a time when the theme of decarbonisation has only grown, which has seen coal’s share in the power mix fall, after peaking in 2007.   

It’s unsurprising that the power sector has driven the bulk of natural gas demand over the years, and there is further room for growth from the sector as power demand is set to grow due to the build-up of data centres in the US, along with potentially stronger demand from industry with the onshoring of production in the US due to the Trump administration’s trade policy.  

However, there are also other sectors where there is the potential for robust demand growth, particularly LNG, given the pipeline of LNG export projects in the US.  

US gas demand could grow as much as 20bcf/d by 2030, which is equivalent to 19% of US dry gas production. However, it is important to point out that this includes and is predominantly driven by growth in feedgas to LNG plants. This number could turn out lower in reality if LNG plants do not operate at close to full capacity. This is not unrealistic when you consider that the global LNG market is set to be in large surplus over the latter part of this decade.   

The power sector is expected to experience the next strongest demand growth. However, with potentially 4.2bcf/d of additional demand growth between now and 2030, this falls short of the 6bcf/d of demand growth seen between 2019 and 2024. Production bottlenecks in gas turbines remain a key obstacle to more aggressive demand expansion in the power sector

LNG sector is a key growth pillar for US gas demand

While not strictly part of US gas demand, LNG export plants have seen feedgas demand grow significantly in recent years.  The rapid expansion of US natural gas production was a key driver behind the establishment of the US LNG industry, which has prompted significant investment in export capacity since 2016. The LNG industry is now the third-largest source of natural gas demand in the US. The sector makes up around 11% of total domestic gas and LNG export demand. The US added around 12.7bcf/d of LNG export capacity between 2016 and 2024, and by 2030, the industry is on schedule to add a further 13.3bcf/d. This additional capacity is equivalent to almost 13% of total US dry natural gas production.  

In addition to this, there is a large amount of capacity which is in the pre-FID stage. However, it is unlikely that all this will proceed to the final investment decision and construction, particularly given the outlook for a well-supplied global LNG market and large capacity additions from Qatar before the end of this decade. 

The additional demand from the LNG industry assumes that plants are operating at full capacity. These facilities have generally operated at full capacity in recent years due to the tightness in the global LNG market. However, with a surplus expected as early as 2026, full utilisation of US export capacity is not guaranteed.

Data centres and manufacturing will drive new gas power growth - but with short-term supply struggles

By 2030, the US’s rapidly developing AI-driven data centre industry could consume over 10% of US electricity, up from 4% today. To meet this surge, natural gas has become the preferred source thanks to its low cost and reliability. According to the International Energy Agency, of the nearly 250TWh of projected new electricity generation for data centres by 2030 in the US, natural gas will likely supply 130TWh. 

Beyond data centres, increased manufacturing and industrial activities - driven by the Trump administration's America-first onshoring strategy -could also boost electricity demand. For example, in the aluminium industry following Section 232 tariffs, if primary aluminium smelting capacity is added to meet domestic demand, power consumption from the sector could rise from about 10 TWh to 60 TWh - around 1.5% of total US power demand. Whether this investment materialises is another question.

As a result, power companies are planning to expand power generation from natural gas. As of September 2025, approximately 40 GW of gas-fired capacity is scheduled for development by 2030 - double the 21 GW planned a year earlier.

However, the ambition to substantially increase natural gas power capacity faces major challenges. The most pressing remains the production backlog of utility-scale combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs), an issue that has persisted across the US throughout 2025.

Surging demand for gas-fired power has pushed CCGTs into backorder status until around 2030, driving prices sharply higher. As discussed previously, the capital expenditure for a typical CCGT plant has consistently exceeded $2,500 per kW since 1Q 2025 – up sharply from $1,200–$1,600 per kW in 2023–2024 and $800–$1,000 per kW during 2015–2022.  

In addition, projects in the pipeline can face lengthy approval times. Despite the Trump administration's effort to substantially reduce the permitting timeline, the long queue for grid interconnection continues to weigh on project development. This, combined with individual project circumstances, means planned capacity often takes longer to materialise. Of the 40GW of planned natural gas power capacity, less than 10% is under construction or completed.

The long lead times and higher CCGT costs have prompted the data centre industry to look into alternatives. Single-cycle gas turbines (SCGTs), though only about 50% as efficient as CCGTs, have re-emerged as a popular choice because they face less severe supply constraints. With smaller outputs, they offer greater flexibility and shorter start-up times. Many SCGTs are also being developed behind the meter, on-site at data centres, which can shorten interconnection approval timelines.

For example, the Stargate data centre project in Abilene, Texas, a joint venture by OpenAI, Oracle, Softbank, and MGX, plans to install 360MW of SCGTs as part of its 15GW project. Other companies planning to use SCGT at their data centres include Elon Musk’s xAI, Alphastruxure (joint venture between Carlyle and Schneider Electric), and Homer City Energy Campus (conversion from coal to SCGT). This space is becoming crowded quickly. Aeroderivative gas turbines, also a type of SCGT, are also gaining traction. Crusoe and Balico are among companies adopting these turbines. This means more demand for natural gas as a feedstock, particularly as SCGTs require more input to generate a certain amount of electricity. 

And despite not gaining great traction yet, retrofitting existing SCGTs can increase turbine efficiency by up to 10%. SCGTs can also be upgraded to CCGTs with a 50% efficiency jump. Currently, of the 568GW of existing gas-fired power capacity, 157GW is powered by SCGTs. This means that efficiency improvement alone can boost gas power capacity by 16GW. If all the SCGTs are upgraded to CCGTs, power capacity can increase by 79GW. Lastly, there is also growing interest in investing in natural gas-powered fuel cells – such as from Equinix and Brookfield Asset Management – which generates electricity without combustion.  

Putting all this together, planned utility-scale gas-fired capacity of about 40 GW by 2030, assuming recent capacity factors, could translate into roughly 4.2 bcf/day of additional natural gas demand through 2030. These projections are relatively conservative (especially considering that gas demand from the power sector grew by 6 bcf/day between 2019 and 2024) but focus on projects that are more likely to come online. Some other analyses, however, anticipate a more aggressive demand outlook for the power sector. 

However, there is likely upside to this number. First, planned behind-the-meter gas generating capacity, specifically from on-site SCGTs and fuel cells, is not included in the 40GW estimate. For instance, Williams Company, which processes and transports natural gas, is reportedly planning 6GW of behind-the-meter capacity by mid-2027. Second, the pipeline could expand further with growing data centre investments and continued support for natural gas under the Trump administration. The downside risk is that capacity factors for gas-fired plants may decline if renewable capacity builds up more aggressively. However, this risk is expected to be somewhat lower under the current administration.

I see no need for a long introduction, so I'll dive right in: Michael Burry is done with this. In a short letter yesterday, he announced that he's liquidating funds and returning capital as his "estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets." In short, he's been thinking that the market is overvalued for quite some time. He's been short the booming companies like Nvidia and Palantir. And he's got his reasons. But he's — apparently — growing increasingly desperate about the time it will take for the market to go back to its senses. Senses meaning valuations that point to PE, PS, P - whatever ratios - that make more sense to him and to many. The S&P 500 companies, for example, trade at an average PE ratio of about 23 today, well above the historical average of around 18.

A big bear has just fallen — just given in to the aggressive AI bulls and their insatiable appetite for tech stocks, or just anything that would rally fast and high enough to keep the show going.

Funny enough, the Nasdaq didn't rally yesterday. On the contrary, it was down 2%, with Nvidia dropping more than 3.5%. I hope the Big Bubble Burst doesn't start the day after Burry buries his positions. That would be ungrateful.

But zooming out, short positions against the S&P 500 increase along with its price. Institutional traders are clearly breathing down the necks of retail bulls — and have been for some time. The CFTC data suggests that leveraged net positions have been fairly negative since the summer of 2022. So the game is clear: if retail traders can hold on to their positions long enough to push the bears away, the bears will get washed out and the market rally could continue. That's probably what Burry thought when he made his decision to just get the hell out of here. Maybe the market will really crash and there will be a Big Short 2. Who knows.

What likely triggered yesterday's selloff was the growing realization that a full set of jobs and inflation data won't land before the Federal Reserve's (Fed) December meeting. And if that's the case — and if the Fed retains even a minimum degree of independence and reason — it wouldn't cut rates blindly. In this context, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday that "price stability remains the more pressing risk as signals from the labour market don't indicate a cyclical downturn clearly enough to merit significant policy loosening while inflation remains well above target." Well, HAPPILY, he will retire next February. But then, other Fed members echoed the same inflation worries, increasing discomfort among Fed doves, and risk takers. The US 2-year yield — which captures Fed expectations — rose to 3.60% yesterday as stocks fell.

And if yields keep pushing higher, the stock selloff could accelerate. But if that selloff deepens, the Fed could be more tempted to cut rates. So Keep Calm and Carry On. The system remains well anchored to keep propping up asset prices — whatever the fundamentals. No one wants to be the Fed Chair who triggered another financial crisis, or caused a bubble to pop.

Right now, optimism around the end of the US government shutdown is giving way to panic — panic and chaotic market moves. The US dollar's selloff, for instance, accelerated yesterday despite hawkish Fed expectations and rebounding yields.

Maybe it's the yen? The USDJPY hit the 155 mark and retreated for the second session in a row. That 155 level now seems to be the new pain threshold — the point that triggers official unease, as Japan's Finance Minister clearly doesn't feel comfortable with the yen's rapid depreciation.

And sorry to say this, Ms. Katamaya, but if yen bears persist, they'll likely win this game. Spending FX reserves to stop a currency slide while your Prime Minister is pushing for looser monetary policy is a losing battle. The only way to reverse that depreciation trend while pushing against rate hikes would be through very strong growth — and that's not on the menu this Christmas.

Japanese GDP grew just 0.5% last quarter, after 0.1% in each of the two preceding ones. So I wouldn't say FX interventions are useless in the short run — they do wipe out bearish positions temporarily and let the currency breathe. But in the medium run, it's like fighting the waves with your fist. The USDJPY is far more likely to test 160 than fall back below 150.

So, if we summarise: the dollar is unloved, the yen is unappetising. I won't even start on sterling... Cable rebounded yesterday only thanks to the dollar's selloff. But sterling is a no-go before the Autumn Budget, and the pair already gave back most of the gains before I had time to call a top.

Underneath, Rachel Reeves wishes she'll have billions of pounds of extra room in her budget, helped by lower inflation and lower interest rates. But the data tells another story: an economy barely growing, battered by tax rises and inflation.

Not helping either — Land Rover's production halt after a cyberattack weighed heavily on the latest industrial numbers. And it's hard to see how the UK could generate growth under the current circumstances.

Shout out if you see anything promising there. But come November 26, Rachel Reeves will either upset investors or taxpayers.

Either taxpayers take the hit and the economy is left to a slow death — and the Bank of England (BoE) cuts rates. Or investors get upset, we get another gilt crisis — and the BoE still cuts rates.

Either way, a 25bp cut from the BoE in December looks increasingly likely. And downhill seems to be sterling's year-end path.

By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote

Now, the US reopening optimism will hardly last, as the issues have not evaporated. Besides the political unease around medical care and other highly charged topics that I don't cover, the US debt continues to rise. The legality of US tariffs is being questioned — and if the tariffs are rolled back, it could cost the US government up to $2 trillion according to Trump, pushing the national debt above the $40 trillion mark sooner than expected. Add to that the persistent Trump risks - and the highly unpredictable nature of the Trump administration - all that is expected to show up in the data as weaker jobs and maybe – but I say maybe – higher inflation.

Yesterday, ADP released a fresh set of figures, contradicting its previous print that the US economy added 42K new private jobs in October. It turns out that hiring slowed in the second half and that US companies shed more than 11K jobs on average per week in the four weeks leading up to October 25th. That complements Challenger's data suggesting the biggest job losses since the early 2000s due to AI and  technology sihfts.

Is it a problem? It depends for whom. It's certainly a problem for politicians, but not for investors. Investors want – and need – this data to be soft enough to justify another 25bp rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in December, which would echo positively across valuations through softer borrowing costs. And softer borrowing costs are needed to make these huge AI investments more affordable. So, yesterday's ADP print was welcome news, along with the chaotic end of the US government shutdown.

345 companies in the S&P 500 gained and pushed the index 0.21% higher. Technology stocks lagged, allowing the equal-weight S&P500 to close the gap with the tech-heavy, market-cap-weighted one. European stock markets – which have limited exposure to tech – gained as well. The Stoxx 600 and the FTSE 100 rallied to fresh all-time highs, as luxury companies led gains on news that Chinese sales are rebounding, while the Swiss SMI jumped nearly 2% on the possibility of a lower tariff rate than the 39% currently applied to Swiss exports to the US. There's a chance this rate could be reduced to 15%, the same as for European peers. It's not ideal, but it would at least discourage Swiss companies from relocating to neighbouring Europe and limit the negative impact of tariffs on the Swiss economy. But I'd wait for the details before clapping.

Nasdaq 100 retreated 0.31% on news that SoftBank sold its entire Nvidia stake to fund other AI projects. It appears SoftBank is looking to boost its bets further down the AI chain — toward companies that actually use AI, like OpenAI and ABB Robotics.

For those unhappy with the circularity of current AI deals, this is good news. These are the companies that should bring real money into the ecosystem and allow it to grow beyond the seven giants that are "sending fake dollars back and forth to each other" to keep the stock rally going. So the fact that Nvidia fell 3% shouldn't be alarming – the company and US Big Tech are now growing beyond borders. Meta, for instance, signed a deal with Dutch cloud provider Nebius, which predicted rapid growth next year – and when I say rapid, it's rapid: their sales soared by more than 300% last quarter. Their share price? It tanked 7% yesterday, along with CoreWeave, which fell 16%.

But data centers can only do well in this environment. AMD's data-center revenue, for example, soared from $2 billion to $16 billion between 2020 and 2025, and will likely keep growing as companies invest in AI infrastructure.

Shopping for promising names on dips demands nerves – but could pay off. But when? Alibaba's Double 11 (Singles' Day) sales are just over. This year, Alibaba used AI tools to personalize recommendations, automate product descriptions and optimize pricing in real time — all of which likely supported sales. For some, it worked wonders: Xiaomi, for example, sold more than $4 billion worth of products!

But what's interesting is how AI-driven search improved performance compared to last year. According to the South China Morning Post, AI boosted "relevance for complex queries" by about 20%, increased advertising cost-effectiveness (ROAS) by ~12%, and raised click-through-rates (CTR) in certain recommendation scenarios by ~10%. These gains suggest stronger user engagement and conversion potential compared with last year's event – when such large-scale generative-AI tools weren't yet deployed.

But – there's always a but – overall consumer sentiment is described as "muted" this year, and the event didn't show a massive growth spike relative to 2024. That gives us something to think about: can AI companies truly win long-term if consumers aren't doing well? And can consumers thrive if AI keeps stealing jobs?

I'll leave you with that thought today.

By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote

The 2-year Treasury yield, which best captures Fed expectations, tanked, and the dollar headed for its biggest drop in three weeks. The probability of a December rate cut recovered to 67%. Yet falling yields and a stronger case for the next Fed cut did little to revive risk appetite. Sellers returned after Wednesday's brief pause, pushing the S&P 500 down more than 1% and the Nasdaq 100 almost 2% lower.

And beyond yields and macro narratives, Big Tech deserved to fall yesterday on two incredible pieces of news.

First, Elon Musk had his trillion-dollar compensation package approved by 75% of Tesla shareholders. The vote comes after Musk's strong support for Trump and several global far-right figures, a stance that quickly cost him the White House's goodwill following the US election — and tarnished Tesla's reputation, especially among its customer base. Tesla's car deliveries have plunged this year, and last quarter's brief sales jump was mostly due to a rush of demand before EV tax credits expired — credits Trump refused to extend amid their falling-out.

The good news? Musk's record-breaking pay package only materializes if Tesla's valuation hits $8.5 trillion — a fantastical figure for a company already trading at a P/E above 300, mostly on dreams rather than fundamentals, and facing mounting competitive and leadership pressure. In other words, Tesla would need either divine intervention — or the US dollar to turn into confetti — to make that valuation and that pay package come true.

Then came the second bizarre headline: OpenAI. The company reportedly asked the US government for guarantees on its massive infrastructure spending — an investment of more than $1 trillion. OpenAI is an incredible company, no doubt, but asking for government backing at a time when markets already fear the circularity of AI money flows, the formation of an AI bubble and uncertainty around returns — well, that didn't sit well with investors.

So yes, this week can't end soon enough. Nasdaq futures are somehow in the green this morning, but Asian tech indices are closing the week deep in the red. The Kospi is set for its worst week since November, the Nikkei is testing the 50,000 support as SoftBank, closely tied to AI names, dropped another 7% today. And the Hang Seng is also down over 1% — though at least it offers some diversification for tech investors: it's not caught in the OpenAI loop.

And that's without mentioning that the US government just broke another record — the longest shutdown in American history, as politicians fail to agree on critical issues like extending medical care programs. Imagine if they actually ended up backing OpenAI's trillion-dollar ambitions!!

So, between the government shutdown, bizarre corporate news, stretched valuations and an underlying economy showing cracks beneath the glossy growth data, investors are understandably hesitant to take on risk. Gold wavered this week but seems to be building a floor near $4'000 per ounce. But even gold is acting oddly amid the growing absurdity of the news flow.

Oil, meanwhile, slid below $60 per barrel as US crude inventories rose by more than 5 million barrels last week — a clear signal of slowing activity. Let's see whether the dollar's recent weakness will help revive appetite for black gold.

Speaking of the dollar — it's losing steam, also helped by news - or lack thereof - from abroad. Japan's finance minister pushed back against yen shorts this week, and France, for once, didn't announce a new shutdown. The EURUSD bounced to 1.1552, and Cable climbed past 1.31 after the Bank of England (BoE) refrained from cutting rates yesterday — though just barely. The vote was split 5-4, tilting more dovish than expected, and markets now price a 55% chance of a December cut.

Still, as tax rises loom, BoE expectations will likely soften further, assuming inflation allows. Sterling's post-BoE rebound is surprising — but probably more about the Fed's dovish turn than confidence in the UK outlook. Yet, sterling rallies remain interesting sell opportunities into the Autumn Budget, both against the greenback and the euro. Cable remains stuck in its June-to-remember bearish trend below 1.33, while EURGBP seems destined to test the 0.90 mark.

Yes, but the sour cocktail of all these arguments didn't prevent major US indices from rallying to uncharted territories since April, and there is no certainty that yesterday's selloff will be the beginning of a broader correction wiping 10–20% off valuations in the coming weeks. It's a possibility — one that many investors and large-company CEOs expect — but it's not a preset course.

Counterarguments exist: earnings are better than expected; the Fed might not cut by another 25bp but could end QT. The latter would bring extra liquidity to markets. Recent data also shows the Fed has been adding liquidity via reverse repo operations and the People's Bank of China (PBoC) is back to purchasing bonds to support growth. Meanwhile, AI deals keep coming in — Nvidia is reportedly expanding partnerships beyond the US, including a recent one with Deutsche Telekom — and the company hasn't said its last word this earnings season.

So yes, the latest moves and the bearish reaction to strong Big Tech earnings call for caution. The VIX index is rising, another sign that market stress is ticking higher. The latest 13F filings also showed that "Big Short" investor Michael Burry is betting against AI champions — about 66% of his portfolio is reportedly in Palantir puts and another 13.5% in Nvidia puts. But hopefully, all this doesn't mean the apocalypse is upon us! Over the past 15 years, the S&P500 rebounded higher after a 10-20% selloff.

Yesterday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell yesterday after Palantir's record and better-than-expected results failed to attract fresh buyers, triggering fears that valuations may have gone too far — with price-to-sales ratios for buzzy tech names getting stretched. There's no doubt some of the Magnificent 7 stocks don't deserve their lofty valuations (I'm looking at you, Tesla). Palantir, for instance, has a P/E ratio near 500, which is insane. Thankfully, that's not the case for the rest of Big Tech. The others trade at relatively high, but not extreme, multiples — the average P/E for the Magnificent 7 is now above 30, versus around 20 for the S&P 493. Google's P/E is 32, Microsoft's 36, and Nvidia's 60 — but that will likely moderate once it reports earnings. Jensen Huang already hinted that up to $500 billion in revenue could flow in from Blackwell and Rubin chip sales between this year and next. A correction would be healthy given how fast the market has risen in the past three years – and since April, but there might not be a dot-com-style crash when companies are printing such strong growth and profits. Smaller, buzzy names could get hit hard, yes — but the tech behemoths have means to weather a selloff.

Now, coming back to earnings, AMD also faced an unpleasant negative reaction despite strong — and stronger-than-expected — results. Revenue rose 32% to $7.69 bn, beating estimates (~$7.41 bn). The company guided for Q3 sales around $9.9 bn. Nevertheless, the share price fell about 3.7% in after-hours trading. The good news is that Nasdaq futures are sold less severely this morning, suggesting downside pressure could ease. But it may take more than a few earnings beats to bring the bulls back.

In metals and currencies, gold interestingly isn't picking up the risk-off trades; it's acting like a risk-on asset, falling in tandem with equities. The yellow metal struggles to hold ground near the $4,000 per ounce mark — it probably rose too far, too fast, to attract risk-averse investors. Bitcoin is also failing to play safe haven, testing the $100K level to the downside.

The US dollar, on the other hand, is strengthening against most majors, acting as a safe haven after months of heavy selling. The EURUSD slipped below 1.15 yesterday, Cable is preparing to test the 1.30 psychological support ahead of Thursday's Bank of England (BoE) meeting, while the AUDUSD fell back below 0.65 despite the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) cautious tone this week, as it refrained from cutting rates and flagged lingering inflation risks. None of this is surprising — the dollar had been heavily shorted this year, so the rebound looks healthy and justified.

Among G10 currencies, the Japanese yen stood out as Japan's Finance Minister said he was not enchanted by the yen's rapid depreciation — a comment that likely prompted speculative shorts to close positions to avoid getting caught in a reversal. Still, given the dollar's strong momentum and the dovish shift in BoJ expectations, the USDJPY will likely continue to attract brave dip buyers.

Today, services PMI figures will be in focus, along with earnings from McDonald's, Qualcomm, and Arm Holdings. Let's see how they perform — and how investors react!

Meanwhile, Microsoft announced a deal with the Australian firm IREN — formerly a crypto mining company — which upgraded its data center to rent out capacity to insatiable Big Tech companies. IREN jumped more than 11% on the Nasdaq. Another one of these mining companies, Cypher Mining, also jumped 16% after announcing a $5 billion deal with Amazon.

In summary, tech stocks had a strong Monday session following these announcements, even though some skeptics continued to raise their eyebrows, concerned by the circularity of these deals.

European carmakers were another bright pocket of the market yesterday as China signaled it would ease the export ban on Nexperia chips, following tensions sparked last month by the Dutch government's takeover of Nexperia from its Chinese owner over governance and security concerns — a move that triggered fresh diplomatic tensions between the two blocs. China's decision to block exports of finished chips to European carmakers had disrupted key supply chains. The easing of these restrictions triggered a relief rally across European carmakers, pushing Volkswagen up around 2.3%. Renault, Mercedes, and Stellantis also gained.

Gains in Europe were also on the menu for Rheinmetall, ASML, and the big banks — making the move quite broad-based. That was not the case in the US, where a set of weak ISM data prevented the S&P 500 from extending gains beyond tech. In fact, 300 companies in the S&P 500 fell yesterday, and the S&P 500 equal-weight index closed 0.24% lower on worries that US economic activity may be weakening — without a clear guarantee that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates again in December.

Indeed, the probability of another 25 bp Fed cut in December has now eased to 65% from above 90% last week, and Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee rubbed salt in the wound by saying he's more concerned about inflation than jobs right now. Even though other Fed members sounded more dovish, the US 2-year yield — which reflects Fed rate expectations — rose yesterday, hinting that the doves lost further ground despite soft data and the US shutdown, which should further weigh on US growth expectations.

Higher yields helped the US dollar extend gains against major peers — exactly the opposite of what was expected during a government shutdown. And this shutdown is not a short one; on the contrary, it's on track to become the longest in US history.

But here we are. Major US indices are holding their ground, even though tech continues to do the heavy lifting — and bubble and circularity concerns keep bubbling. Yields are higher than last week but still near their lowest levels since the April dip, and the US dollar is recovering. Market volatility remains contained, and earnings are coming in better than expected.

Meanwhile, Big Tech bond issuance is drawing exceptionally strong demand on both sides of the Atlantic — we're talking five to ten times oversubscription for names like Oracle, Google, and Meta — as investors look for AI exposure through a different, and arguably less risky, instrument.

So what could go wrong? Many analysts bet that the rally in major global indices will continue on the back of insatiable AI appetite, robust earnings and easing trade tensions. Plus, November and December tend to be good months for stock investors. If all goes well, the year could end without another April-like sharp selloff across global financial markets.

But it's worth remembering that the buzzy AI headlines continue to mask a deteriorating reality: if you take tech out, the rest is not necessarily sweet. Even within tech, valuations are extremely high, and the urge to see ROI is growing.

Bank of America, for example, predicts that AI capex will reach 94% of operating cash flow in 2026, up from 76% in 2024 — a reason why these companies are now issuing debt. High valuations combined with falling cash flow mean that investors will grow pickier about returns — and the latest market reactions offer a warning: Palantir became the third major tech company — after Microsoft and Meta — to fall despite announcing record, better-than-expected results.

And if tech sneezes, global financial markets — starting with the US — will catch a cold.

On the macro front, despite the lack of fresh official data, private indicators suggest a slowing economy and a weakening labour market. US layoffs have already reached their highest level since 2020. Inflationary risks persist due to tariffs, the geopolitical and trade setup remains unstable, and developed-market politics — and budget discussions — aren't looking good either.

Today, major US and European indices are in the red. But there are no particularly worrying signs of stress. We continue to watch earnings: AMD, Shopify and Uber are among companies that could impact sentiment.

The energy sector, in particular, ended the week on a stronger note after Exxon and Chevron reported earnings on Friday. Both companies beat expectations, driven mainly by solid production growth and operational execution despite headwinds from lower oil prices. Exxon leaned heavily into growth (Guyana/Permian) and raised its dividend, while Chevron's more conservative focus on cash flow, share buybacks, and dividends — combined with the Hess deal — resonated well with investors. SPDR's energy fund — which tanked after the April tariff announcement, then regained pre-announcement levels before falling again in September — has managed to hold support near a critical Fibonacci retracement level. It tested the 50-DMA to the upside but failed to close above that mark as concerns about the low-price environment kept bulls from extending their bets.

US crude found buyers near the $60 pb level last week, keeping prices above pre-sanction levels, though the 50-DMA continues to cap the topside amid ample supply from OPEC and the Americas and uncertain global demand. The Paris-based IEA projects that global oil supply will rise by around 3 mbpd this quarter and reach a record glut next year. Perhaps in response, OPEC announced over the weekend that it will halt additional supply between January and March, following a 137 K bpd increase in December. That decision helped US crude start the week on a positive note, though bulls still look hesitant to break key technical levels. The $62–$62.15 pb range — which includes the minor 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the June–October slump and the 50-DMA — will likely remain a tough ceiling for now. That stands in interesting contrast to clean-energy funds, which have performed well since the April dip despite the White House's pushback against alternative energy sources. VanEck's Global Clean Energy ETF has jumped more than 60% since April and still trades at a 24% discount to its 2022 peak.

In the medium run, AI-related electricity demand should continue to boost appetite for energy providers — traditional, alternative, and nuclear alike. AI demand is expected to add hundreds of terawatt-hours of consumption over the next decade, on top of growing demand from emerging markets. Energy remains an intriguing play — regardless of which type of energy you prefer or support financing.

Speaking of AI, another week begins with strong appetite for AI-related stocks. Korean tech names are leading gains this Monday morning after Nvidia announced late last week — as promised earlier — that it would supply over 260'000 chips to South Korea's government and leading firms, including Samsung Electronics and SK Group. The deal is estimated to be worth between $8 billion and $12 billion for GPU supply alone. Samsung is up more than 3% this morning, SK Hynix more than 10%. Even Korean chicken-related companies got a boost after Jensen Huang was spotted eating chicken with Hyundai and Samsung executives. Nasdaq futures, meanwhile, are trading higher and leading gains into the European open. Voila.

This week, in the continued absence of US data due to the ongoing government shutdown — which, by Thursday, will become the longest in history — investors will keep their focus on earnings. In tech, Palantir and AMD (which recently announced deals with Nvidia) and Qualcomm (which just revealed plans to enter the AI-chip market to compete with Nvidia) will head to the earnings confessionals. McDonald's and Shopify, meanwhile, will help investors gauge US consumer dynamics as concerns rise over consumer health amid perceived weakness in the jobs market and early cracks in housing.

The US dollar remains relatively strong despite the underlying noise. A more hawkish Fed outlook last week helped the greenback recover part of this year's losses, but its rebound also reflects heavy sell-offs in two major peers: the Japanese yen and the pound sterling. The yen weakened on expectations that Takaichi will support continued easy monetary policy, while sterling came under pressure on budget concerns ahead of the Autumn Statement and growing odds that the Bank of England (BoE) may need to intervene sooner rather than later to prevent a deeper economic downturn.

The BoE meets this week and is expected to leave rates unchanged, but there's now a growing chorus suggesting the bank could deliver a surprise cut — or at least sound dovish enough to confirm Cable's medium-term bearish trend below the critical 1.3140 Fibonacci level.

The selloff likely reflects the broader macroeconomic backdrop, as Treasury yields climbed after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell said earlier this week it's "not clear" another 25 bp cut will come in December.

The good news: Apple and Amazon extended the streak of better-than-expected results after the bell. Apple — not the market's hottest AI play — beat forecasts on strong iPhone sales and upbeat holiday guidance. Amazon delivered its fastest AWS growth since 2022, a relief for investors who had questioned its – and its peers' - heavy data-center spending. In reality, these firms are racing to meet demand that, according to Microsoft, is running well ahead of their capacity. With AI applications expected to double computing needs every 9 to 18 months, supply is struggling to keep pace. That makes today's spending look aggressive — but necessary. Until we see signs of oversupply, there's little reason to worry about capex excess.

Overall, Big Tech wrapped up the earnings season on solid footing despite mixed price reactions — largely a Fed-driven sentiment issue rather than a fundamental one. Nasdaq futures are higher this morning, buoyed by Amazon's 13% post-earnings jump — the biggest among the "Magnificent Seven" this week.

Today attention turns to the oil majors, with Exxon Mobil and Chevron reporting earnings expected to show modest year-on-year declines as softer oil and gas prices bite. Both face the same test: protecting profitability and capital discipline in a lower-price environment while reassuring investors about cash returns and production outlooks. Recent tactical longs built on renewed Russia-related tensions are now taking profits. WTI crude has found support near $60 a barrel, but if US output keeps recovering, there's a greater risk of a break below $60 than a rebound above it.

Meanwhile, the US dollar has been recovering since Powell's comments dampened hopes for a December rate cut. The EURUSD trades below 1.06 after the European Central Bank (ECB) held rates steady as expected, with Lagarde saying policy is "in a good place." Policymakers sounded slightly more upbeat, citing easing downside risks as trade tensions with the US subside, while keeping their inflation outlook broadly unchanged. Traders now price in no further rate cuts over the next year. Still, despite the ECB's slightly hawkish tone, the euro's top-heavy formation may persist if the Fed turns more hawkish — since the ECB's pause was priced in, while the Fed's stance surprised markets. Today's focus in Europe will be the October preliminary inflation data, expected to confirm slowing price pressures across the region, which could further strengthen the bears' hand.

Across the Channel, sterling came under pressure this week, with the GBPUSD testing the 38.2% Fibonacci support of its year-to-date rally. A decisive break would push the pair into a bearish consolidation zone, raising the risk of a deeper pullback — consistent with fundamentals as the Autumn Budget looms and UK growth prospects remain subdued.

In Japan, the USDJPY climbed to 154.45 on dovish shift in BoJ expectations due to the new PM Takaichi's explicit preference for a soft monetary policy.

In metals, gold is heading for a second consecutive weekly loss, though selling pressure has eased despite higher yields, a firmer dollar and encouraging trade news. Volatility remains elevated, suggesting room for a short-term pullback before stability returns. But the long-term picture is unchanged: surging sovereign debt across developed economies, fragile major currencies and sustained central-bank gold buying continue to support appetite for gold — and other hard assets — over the medium to long term. In that context, precious, industrial,and rare-earth metals should remain in demand.

Nvidia also plans to invest $1 billion in Nokia to help transform the Finnish networking company into an AI-driven firm. Nokia, in turn, will use Nvidia chips to accelerate its 5G and 6G software development, while Nvidia will explore Nokia's data-center strategy for its own AI infrastructure. There's some circularity in the arrangement, but also tangible revenue potential for both companies — and investors liked what they heard: Nokia shares jumped 24%, hitting their highest level since 2010.

Nvidia also announced a collaboration with Palantir on government and industrial AI applications and customizable AI agents. According to reports, Nvidia has already booked around $500 billion worth of Blackwell and Rubin chip sales for 2025–26, and further deals with Samsung and Hyundai are expected later this week.

No surprise then that Jensen Huang insists there's no bubble in sight. Nvidia shares soared 5%, passing the $200 mark for the first time. The S&P 500 edged to another all-time high, led by tech, while the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.74% — also supported by a 2% gain in Microsoft after it reportedly received a 27% ownership stake in OpenAI, positioning the AI startup to transition into a for-profit company.

So, you heard it — move on, there's no bubble to see here!

Big Tech earnings remain in the center stage today with Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet reporting Q3 results after the bell. At current price levels and valuations, there's little room for missteps — whether on earnings, spending plans or guidance. Skeptics have been calling for a broad sell-off for at least more than a year, arguing that AI revenues aren't growing fast enough. That day may eventually come, but for three years running, Big Tech has consistently met and beaten expectations. And given the scale of deals and capex we're seeing, it's hard to swim against the tide — at least in Nvidia's case. Whether AI investments generate revenue immediately or not, Big Tech has the cash to spend on Nvidia's chips. And they are spending.

One minor setback came from ASM International, whose Q3 orders missed expectations due to weaker demand from major clients including TSMC, Intel, and Samsung. But will that discourage AI bulls from buying more? Hardly.

Of course, AI needs energy, and nuclear has re-emerged as the form of clean power best suited to meet those needs — since solar and wind can't run the machines 24/7. Big Tech and the US government are now rolling out nuclear partnerships almost daily. The Global X Uranium ETF jumped another 8% yesterday, reaching its highest level since 2011 — a parabolic move that mirrors AI's own hunger for energy.

And if anything, yesterday's rally could still get a bit of sugar coating if the Federal Reserve (Fed) sounds sufficiently dovish later today. In the absence of fresh data, policymakers are effectively acting half-blind, but the market widely expects a 25-basis-point rate cut and possibly an end to quantitative tightening (QT), as much of the pandemic-era liquidity has now evaporated. Some even expect the Fed to announce an immediate end to QT today — which would certainly lift market sentiment: the more liquidity, the more fuel for assets. And with roughly $7.5 trillion parked in US money market funds, lower rates could push investors toward riskier corners of the market.

The US dollar remains under pressure. Although it was slightly better bid in Asia, a dovish Fed statement could renew selling. Still, the downside looks limited for the greenback, given how unappealing the major alternatives currently are:

·        Japanese yen: Little appetite amid talk of a softer Bank of Japan (BoJ) stance, which could push the USDJPY toward the 155–160 range by year-end.

·        Euro: Confidence remains shaky amid ongoing French political turmoil and fears of another government collapse.

·        Sterling: Investors are cautious ahead of the Autumn Budget, and yesterday's BRC inflation report showed the sharpest drop in food prices since the pandemic, largely due to falling sugar prices — a boost for Bank of England (BoE) doves.

So, the dollar's stabilization — despite a looming US government shutdown — owes more to a lack of alternatives than genuine demand. A dovish Fed could change that today, though any rebound in major peers will likely be limited and may even present opportunities to fade rallies against the dollar, given how much Fed dovishness is already priced in.

As for gold, its recent slide could find support near $3'800 per ounce, just above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of its two-year rally.

So I'll leave it here for today — and let Powell and the earnings do the talking for the rest of the day.

On the Chinese front, investors are now bracing for a positive outcome as well. Yet fundamentally, the US and Chinese objectives remain difficult to align. The US wants to bring manufacturing back home — which comes at China's expense — while also encouraging Beijing to spend more domestically, something Xi has tried and largely failed to achieve. As two Bloomberg journalists aptly wrote this morning, China's latest five-year plan "appears to show Trump's rebalancing dream to be — as far as Beijing is concerned — a fantasy."

Still, personal rapport between the two leaders could help keep relations as stable as possible under the circumstances. But any trade deal is unlikely to mark an endgame or magically eliminate policy volatility under Trump. Fortunately, markets have acclimated to that since January. The S&P 500 hasn't waited for perfect news to extend its rally to new highs — it's been doing so since June — while Chinese and Hong Kong equities are clawing back past losses, led by tech names.

In Japan, the Nikkei on Monday crossed the 50'000 level for the first time in history, though we're seeing some profit-taking this morning. But overall, the news flow remains supportive of risk-taking: trade deals with the US are lining up, the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) are both expected to cut rates this week, and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) outlook has turned softer under Takaichi.

What could go wrong? Time will tell — but for now, equity investors around the world are enjoying the rally, while safe-haven assets pull back. Gold, for instance, slipped below $4,000 per ounce, in what looks like a healthy correction after its exponential rally. The pullback could deepen by 10–20%, bringing prices back toward $3,400, the key 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the past two-year surge. Above $3,400, gold's uptrend remains intact, and bulls still have their eyes on $5,000.

Elsewhere in commodities, copper remains volatile but broadly positive, while US crude tested — but failed to clear — its 50-day moving average yesterday despite the trade optimism. Tactical bullish bets placed after last week's sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil are now being closed. There's speculation the sanctions may prove less severe than initially feared, as Trump likely wants to avoid triggering a price spike. Add to that Saudi Arabia's efforts to expand market share and expectations that OPEC will bring additional barrels to market, and the bears are likely to push for a return below $60 per barrel.

In FX, the US dollar retreated to a one-week low as the Fed began its two-day policy meeting. The central bank is widely expected to deliver a second 25-bp cut this year, amid growing speculation it may also announce an end to quantitative tightening (QT). Some suggest QT could end immediately, arguing that post-pandemic excess liquidity has now been fully absorbed and that the Fed wants to avoid draining it further. If that's the case — if this week's much-expected, fully priced-in rate cut is sweetened by the end of QT — equity bulls will have little reason to reverse the current rally. Short-term yields and the dollar would likely move lower.

Inside equities, AI and tech remain the centre of attention this week. While investors await Big Tech earnings on Wednesday and Thursday, Qualcomm stood out yesterday by announcing plans to launch new AI chips to compete with Nvidia and AMD in the rapidly expanding AI-chip market. Its AI200 and AI250 chips will hit the market next year, with Saudi Humane as its first customer. Nvidia and AMD could've felt queasy on the news — but no: both rose about 2.7–2.8%, as optimism spread that chip appetite keeps growing and there's enough cake for everyone to have a generous slice. Qualcomm, meanwhile, jumped more than 20% intraday and closed the session roughly 11% higher.

In the coming days, we'll find out Big Tech's spending plans, which will directly affect chip-demand forecasts. Together, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta are expected to have spent over $100 billion in Q3, most of it on chips and data centres. Bubble or not, the money is being spent, the rally is on — and it's not a bubble until it bursts.

So, despite the uncomfortably high absolute figures, the fact that they came in softer than expected reinforced expectations for a 25bp Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut this week, with markets also assigning roughly a 93% probability to another cut in December. As such, the US dollar and 2-year Treasury yield came under pressure on Friday but are both firmer this morning amid renewed risk appetite and optimism that the US and China are inching closer to a trade deal. Early reports suggest the two sides have reached an initial agreement on major issues, including export controls, shipment levies and fentanyl, raising hopes that Thursday's meeting between Trump and Xi could yield tangible progress. The CSI 300 is up about 1% at the time of writing, also supported by signs of stabilizing foreign investment flows and improved industrial profits.

In the US, the combination of softer-than-expected CPI figures, the prospect of two more rate cuts, and trade optimism pushed the S&P 500 to a fresh record high on Friday. Futures are pointing to a bullish start today. Earnings season, too, is shaping up well: around 30% of S&P 500 companies have reported so far, and 87% have delivered a positive EPS surprise, while 83% have beaten revenue expectations, according to FactSet. The blended year-on-year earnings growth rate for Q3 stands at 9.2%, marking what would be the ninth consecutive quarter of earnings growth — well above the roughly 5–6% growth expected at the start of the season.

This week, the tech heavyweights — Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple and Amazon — are set to report Q3 results. Because they account for roughly a quarter of the S&P 500's total market capitalization, invest heavily in AI and have shouldered the market rally since early 2023 despite wars, rate hikes and global economic headwinds, their results will be crucial in determining whether the tech-led rally can extend further.

Investors are looking for:

1. Concrete payoffs from AI investments,
2. Growth trends in data centers and AI-related businesses, and
3. Commitments to continued spending, as one company's investment is another's revenue stream.

On Friday, Intel rose as much as 8% in pre-market trading after beating expectations, but the enthusiasm quickly faded as investors questioned whether the company's revival is policy-driven rather than organic. Washington wants Intel to reclaim its role as America's semiconductor champion and anchor Trump's push to reshore chip manufacturing. That ambition has spurred cooperation with AI giants such as Nvidia and SoftBank, creating periodic price spikes. Yet for now, Intel looks more like a strategic instrument of industrial policy than a pure investment play. Government support may keep it buoyant, but whether this will translate into sustainable, profitable growth remains an open question.

Elsewhere, both the Stoxx 600 and Nikkei 225 hit fresh all-time highs. In Europe, stronger-than-expected PMI readings and the dovish Fed narrative lifted risk appetite, helping the index to new highs. This week, preliminary October CPI data are expected to show a slight moderation in inflation, and the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to hold rates steady. In Japan, Takaichi's calls for looser Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy and increased fiscal spending on tech, defense, nuclear power and cybersecurity continue to fuel the Nikkei's exponential rally. The USDJPY is extending gains toward 153, with scope to test the 155–160 range if policy divergence persists.

Meanwhile, the EURUSD remains under pressure from French political turmoil.
Moody's affirmed France's credit rating on Friday but revised its outlook to negative, while the Socialist Party has threatened to topple the fragile government as soon as this week. The widening spread between French and German 10-year yields should keep EUR/USD capped below its 50-day moving average, now near 1.0690.

In the UK, last week's data painted a mixed picture: headline inflation unexpectedly eased to 3.5%, but retail sales surprised to the upside for a fourth consecutive month, leaving the Bank of England's (BoE) rate-cut debate as muddled as ever. In all cases, sterling remains unappealing heading into next month's Autumn Budget.

Netflix's 10% plunge following disappointing quarterly results didn't help sentiment. Still, since Netflix isn't an AI play, its earnings story remains fairly isolated and shouldn't impact broader appetite for AI-related stocks — the key driver behind the US market's rally.

Elsewhere in earnings, Tesla missed expectations despite record sales. The record, however, was largely due to buyers rushing to purchase EVs before the end of federal subsidies — a one-off jump unlikely to prevent Tesla from posting a second consecutive annual sales decline. Profits plunged as operating expenses rose by roughly 50%, partly due to higher costs linked to renewed trade duties, estimated at around $400 million. While Musk continues to shift focus toward AI, humanoid robots and robotaxis, those ventures won't offset the decline in EV revenues anytime soon. And this time, unlike the previous earnings announcements, investors weren't entirely convinced by the latest pitch, and Tesla shares dropped 3.8% in after-hours trading.

Looking at the chart, Tesla has been on a wild ride since the elections. The EV business has been under pressure for over a year and is far from delivering the 50% annual growth Musk once promised. After last year's US elections and Musk's alignment with Trump, the stock rose — but when that relationship cooled, it fell again. Despite a recent rebound, Tesla's valuation remains lofty: its P/E ratio is above 300, versus around 33 for the Magnificent 7. For Tesla to justify that premium, it needs tangible progress in robotaxis, robotics and AI — but the "Musk risk" makes it a very different bet from other tech giants.

The good news is that neither Tesla nor Netflix meaningfully shifts the broader AI-driven narrative that continues to steer the major US indices. Futures point to a modest rebound this morning, suggesting sentiment remains intact despite lingering trade, geopolitical and credit risks.

Turning to geopolitics, the EU has approved its 19th sanctions package against Russia, while the US announced new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil — two Russian oil giants — pushing US crude prices back above $60 per barrel this morning. Such geopolitical headlines tend to generate short-term price moves, and tactical long positions may encounter resistance near $62–62.50, where the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the June–October selloff and the 50-DMA converge. The medium-term outlook for oil remains somewhat bearish given uncertain global demand and abundant supply. Upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts and a softer US dollar should, in theory, help establish a floor under oil prices, alongside rising energy needs tied to AI and data infrastructure. Yet, oil bulls have struggled to gain traction on these arguments, and speculative long positions are retreating. Any recovery is therefore likely to remain short-lived, with the medium-term bias staying bearish below the $65 level — the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the summer decline.

On credit, concerns about bad loans that surfaced last week have eased, as several US regional banks reported no new cases in their quarterly updates. That's a relief, but the recent stress serves as a reminder that credit conditions remain fragile. PrimaLend Capital Partners — a subprime auto lender that finances buy-here-pay-here car dealerships — filed for bankruptcy. The case underscores growing strain among low-income US consumers, who are falling behind on car payments at the highest rate in decades.

The bottom line is that we know the stock market's performance doesn't fully reflect the underlying US economy (if any at all). Growth remains heavily supported by massive AI investment, while the labour market is weakening. Things could get worse before they improve, with many federal employees expected to miss paychecks next month amid a government shutdown that's now on track to become the second longest in history.

These conditions are clearly paving the way for Fed intervention — provided inflation doesn't reaccelerate. We'll get more clarity on that front Friday, but the US 2-year yield, which best captures rate expectations, suggests investors are pricing in at least two rate cuts over the next two Fed meetings — a setup that, in itself, remains supportive of risk appetite.

Banks continued to issue sustainable bonds at a robust pace in 2025, despite the diminishing regulatory support for ESG.

They issued €68bn in sustainable debt in 2025 YTD, which is close to the volumes issued over the same period last year. The comparable ESG print to last year resembles the roughly similar total bank bond supply volumes versus 2024.

Sustainable issuance maintained a solid pace due to the growth in sustainable loan portfolios and the increase in sustainable debt redemptions. Asset availability made issuers sufficiently comfortable with tagging the ESG label to their supply, despite the arguably limited added value of doing so from an execution point of view or a greenium perspective.

Banks issued slightly more in unsecured and subordinated instruments and slightly less in secured debt, but the differences versus last year are truly negligible. The distribution across green and social is also roughly comparable to last year, albeit with slightly more issuance in sustainability format, with a combined green and social use of proceeds. Also, one sustainability-linked loan bond (SLLB) added to the YTD ESG supply in euros

Sustainable bank bond supply is projected to finish 2025 close to the €80bn issued last year. Looking ahead, issuance is expected to remain steady, at around €80bn in 2026, supported by a modest rise in overall bank bond issuance. 

Europe’s focus on the competitiveness and simplification agenda could cause the bond market’s supply focus to drift slightly away from the ESG theme. However, with few constraints seen on the asset availability side, we expect banks to continue to print some 20% of their EUR supply in sustainable format. Particularly when faced with market uncertainty, banks will rely more on sustainable issuance as a means of ensuring sufficient investor demand in the primary market.

Bonds will remain the main source of sustainable financing, regardless of the additional bank offerings of deposits or commercial paper for the same purpose.

Lending growth and ESG redemptions support green issuance

The current state of bank sustainable asset portfolios provides a solid foundation for ESG issuance in 2026. Positive lending growth against the backdrop of improving macroeconomic conditions will also support the origination of new sustainable assets.

The financing of climate change mitigation remains the dominant objective for green bond issuance, with green buildings, renewable energy projects and clean transportation as the most important use of proceeds categories. Green portfolio growth from the financing of other environmental objectives, such as climate change adaptation or the circular economy, is expected to remain muted.

Some 20% of the projected sustainable bond issuance will be directed to social projects, with issuance in unsecured format tilted towards employment generation and access to essential services, and issuance in covered bond format towards social housing.

Additionally, EUR ESG redemptions for banks are set to increase from €36bn in 2025 to €56bn in 2026. Although factors such as look-back periods, stricter use-of-proceeds criteria, or loan repayments since issuance may limit the full sustainable refinancing of maturing bonds, a portion of the freed-up assets will be available for new issuance.

Not all is negative from a regulation point of view

Europe’s efforts to simplify its sustainability disclosures regime for companies could slightly shift banks' attention away from identifying sustainable loans on their balance sheets and from the necessity to originate new sustainable loans.

The Omnibus I package proposed by the European Commission in February this year reduces the disclosure scope of the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) to large companies with more than a thousand employees (instead of 250) and a net turnover of €50m or €25m in total assets. It also provides for an opt-in clause for Taxonomy disclosures for companies with less than €450m turnover. The European Parliament’s legal affairs committee recently reached a compromise advocating a scope reduction to 1000 employees and a €450m turnover, also applicable to Taxonomy disclosures.

The reduced disclosure scope raises the bar for banks to gather ESG information from clients, facilitating the identification of loans as sustainable on their balance sheet. On top of that, the Omnibus I package results in a two-year postponement in the CSRD disclosure requirements for non-listed large companies and listed SMEs, while the revisions to the European Sustainability Reporting Standards (ESRS) will significantly lower the future disclosures to be made.

Besides, smaller-sized credit institutions will fall outside the disclosure scope themselves. Unless they opt in to provide voluntary disclosures, they will have less incentive to identify, for instance, taxonomy-aligned loans on their balance sheet. The impact thereof on ESG bond issuance should be modest, though. The balance sheet size of most of these institutions was probably already too small to set aside sufficient sustainable assets for the issuance of green or social bonds.

Despite the simplification efforts on the ESG side, it is important to bear in mind that most large institutions will remain within the CSRD reporting scope and have set net-zero pathways, committing them to a further greening of their balance sheet. The same will also apply to banks that may fall out of scope in the future, but have already made all the preparatory efforts for the CSRD disclosures.

Implemented regulatory changes in the field of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) will also support an ongoing focus on the renovation and greening of the building stock in the decades to come. In addition, the European Commission is set to publish its first European Affordable Housing Plan later this year, which may provide future impetus for the origination of affordable housing loans.

Issuance under the EuGBS fails to impress

Banks did not jump massively on the opportunity to start issuing bonds under the EU Green Bond Standard (GBS) in 2025. Only three European banks used Europe’s ‘golden standard’ for their green supply for a total amount of €3.5bn.

With the EuGBS - in principle - requiring full taxonomy alignment, its take-up is set to remain low in 2026. Even though the EU Taxonomy’s technical screening criteria for substantial contribution are broadly embedded in the green bond frameworks, full taxonomy alignment often remains a soft ‘best effort’ commitment.

The advocated reductions in the scope of ESG disclosures, the postponements in Taxonomy alignment reporting, the lack of clarity on certain interpretations related to the EuGBS legal text (especially for issuers utilising the portfolio approach), and the upcoming review of the Taxonomy’s technical screening criteria will probably contribute to a wait-and-see approach by banks.

Moreover, the deals issued so far under the EU GBS lack convincing funding advantages versus incumbent ICMA-aligned green bond structures. The secondary curve of one of the issuers that issued bonds according to the EU GBS illustrates that all three EU green bonds are quoted at wider spread levels than the other conventional and green preferred senior bonds of the bank. Whilst recognising that this effect may have other reasons for causality, this hardly encourages issuers to go the extra mile for EuGB issuance.

Sustainability-linked & transition labelled issuance remains niche

The issuance of sustainability-linked bonds (SLBs) also remains virtually non-existent in the banking segment. The incompatibility of step-up coupon features linked to sustainability KPIs, with the eligibility for banks’ minimum requirements for own funds and eligible liabilities (MREL), has prevented bank SLB issuance from taking off.

Bond issuance with the purpose of financing sustainability-linked loans (SLLBs) bypasses these difficulties as the KPIs and step-up/-down features are set at the level of the sustainability-linked loans. Yet also the issuance of SLLBs remains a scarcity so far, with only one bank issuing them in the EUR market so far, of which €1bn this year. Apart from that, very few banks have an SLLB framework in place, despite the ICMA’s Sustainability-Linked Loans financing Bond Guidelines (SLLBG) of June 2024.

Having said that, regardless of the watering down of Europe’s sustainability disclosure framework, the transition planning and client engagement efforts of banks could promote more sustainability-linked loan origination. The issuance volumes in SLLBs should nonetheless be expected to stay low in 2026. Equally, given the contentiousness of the transition label (targeting, for instance, hard-to-abate sectors or ‘brown-to-green’ activities), any transition bond issuance should not be expected from the banking sector.

Why precious metals sold off yesterday—and whether this is the beginning of a broader correction—remains to be seen. But looking at yesterday's action, the pullback was triggered by hopes of easing trade tensions between the US and China and a rebound in the US dollar. Yet, tensions are far from guaranteed to ease—not this week and probably not during Trump's entire mandate at the White House—and the US dollar's rebound may be reversed by persistent, and very much alive, dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. Plus, the US government remains shut, and debt worries in the Western world have not eased. On the contrary, French debt was just downgraded last Friday and the divided government there makes any budget deal look terribly complex. The UK just printed its second-biggest borrowing for April to September since records began in 1993 (the other was during the pandemic), while Japan just appointed Takaichi as its next PM—and she is willing to expand government spending.

So, what probably better explained yesterday's precious metals selloff was mainly the fact that the metals are now trading in deeply overbought market conditions with heightened volatility. The gold volatility index has spiked this October to its highest level since March 2022. If history is any guide, gold retreated 20% following that volatility spike. And given the latest euphoria, crowded speculative long positions and overbought conditions, a further price pullback is possible—without, however, threatening gold's role in long-term portfolios. Gold has become the go-to asset for global investors—from retail to institutions and central banks—seeking protection from sovereign debt worries, trade and geopolitical jitters and inflation: factors that have become today's reality. That won't change overnight. Some, therefore, see the price pullback as an opportunity to strengthen long positions.

While gold and silver bulls were having a hard time yesterday, oil traders breathed a sigh of relief, with a more than 1% rebound yesterday followed by another 1.2% gain in Asia. But here, the opposite scenario is unfolding. Oil has fallen near oversold territory on murky global demand outlooks and ample OPEC supply, which are expected to lead to a supply surplus this year. While a softer dollar—normally improving EM demand for energy—and prospects of Fed rate cuts haven't boosted crude appetite since summer, cheaper oil could improve appetite for US 10-year Treasuries by taming inflationary pressures and justifying lower Fed rates. The US 10-year yield fell below the 4% mark yesterday, while the US dollar strengthened despite the ongoing US government shutdown—which, fundamentally, is not good news for US fiscal health. Go figure!

This morning, the US dollar is offered, as the EURUSD meets support near the 1.16 mark—which, by the way, is technically insignificant and wouldn't necessarily hold bears back from further selling. The USDJPY is also retreating from above 152—again, technically insignificant apart from being a round number. With the French downgrade and the Japanese Takaichi trade mostly factored in, the next direction in major FX pairs will likely depend on the US dollar—and that will most likely hinge on the CPI figures due this Friday.

The good news is that earnings are coming in quite nicely, keeping stock market appetite alive, and there are signs investors are preparing for further Fed dovishness by closing short positions. Speaking of earnings, Coca-Cola delivered better-than-expected quarterly results, while GM raised its full-year profit target as it trims its struggling EV business and refocuses on its money-making gas-powered models in an environment where climate concerns are out of the window. GM also now expects the tariff impact to be half a billion dollars less than previously estimated. Elsewhere, Zions Bancorp—which was part of last week's bad-loan stress—topped profit estimates despite a $50 million loss tied to alleged fraud, easing bad-credit concerns among regional US banks. Netflix disappointed after the bell and fell 6.5% in after-hours trading, though the miss was due to a tax dispute—without which results would have been broadly in line. Tesla and IBM report today.

And speaking of short positions being closed into next week's much-expected Fed cut, Beyond Meat—one of the most shorted stocks on the market—jumped around 127% on Friday and another 146% yesterday. Yesterday's rally was also fueled by the announcement of its new US distribution deal with Walmart, but other heavily shorted names such as Krispy Kreme and 1-800-Flowers.com also gained more than 10% each. Affaire à suivre!

By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote

Despite that, the short-term outlook for the manufacturing sector is highly uncertain. Some producers from the automotive industry continue their downsizing activity. Some production facilities are closing, and several producers have announced they'll pause production for some weeks by the end of the year due to poor demand. Despite a strong September, we remain cautious about the manufacturing sector in the final quarter of this year. 

Wage growth was robust in manufacturing in September (8.4% YoY), but with a low increase in energy production (2.6% YoY), a decline in mining wages (-5.1% YoY) and easing wage pressure in services, overall wage growth in enterprises amounted to 7.5% YoY and was lower than 8.5% we had expected, but slightly higher than 7.1% in August. The overall trend of slowing wage growth is sustained and should ease upward pressure on services' prices and facilitate further disinflation, including lower core inflation.

Employment in enterprises continues falling (-0.8% YoY), confirming long-term negative trends in the labour market. We have two main tendencies. First, the main force driving the decline in employment is the fall in labour supply due to poor demographics. Second is the intersectoral reallocation of resources. We've written extensively on this in our Directional report here: Softer demand for labour is also increasingly visible. 

Solid output in manufacturing and elevated wage growth in this sector in September may convince the National Bank of Poland's Monetary Policy Council to refrain from another rate cut in November and wait for more data from the real economy to better assess mid-term inflationary trends. At the same time, easing wage pressure in services and an unfavourable outlook for domestic manufacturing leave room for further monetary policy easing over the medium term.

We expect the National Bank of Poland (NBP) policy rates to remain unchanged by the end of 2025 and expect the MPC to reduce the reference rate by another 50bps next year, down to 4.00% at the end of 2026.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump’s proposal could save companies money without harming investors’ interests. He also noted that changing the reporting schedule could make the United States a more attractive market for foreign firms considering anIPO.

Global Context

Trump pointed out that many countries, including the UK and EU nations, already use semiannual financial reporting, while allowing companies to issue quarterly reports if they choose. He also referenced China, noting that Chinese companies often plan for growth over decades, whereas American firms focus on quarterly results.

Impact on the U.S. Stock Market

The number of publicly listed companies in the U.S. has declined from over 7,000 in 1996 to fewer than 4,000 in 2020. Experts say that moving away from mandatory quarterly reporting could lower barriers for companies hesitant to go public due to costs and regulatory burdens.

Mike Bienenfeld, a lawyer at Linklaters specializing in SEC compliance, stated that while the change might not be revolutionary, it would certainly be an important consideration for firms weighing a U.S. stock market debut.

Cautions from Critics

Not everyone supports abandoning quarterly reporting. Critics argue that regular updates increase transparency and help protect investors’ interests. While semiannual reports could ease corporate management, they might reduce the immediate visibility into a company’s financial health.

Trump’s proposal has sparked debate over balancing long-term strategic planning with the need for ongoing financial oversight. Semiannual reporting could influence company strategies, investor decisions, and the attractiveness of the U.S. market for foreign firms.

Nasdaq announced the immediate dismissal of Lisa Schmidt, a senior advisor on sustainability and climate, after her offensive Instagram post reacting to Charlie Kirk’s killing. In the post, Schmidt used vulgar language directed at the late activist, writing “F** Charlie Kirk”* and “Rest in piss”.

In a public statement on X (formerly Twitter), Nasdaq said:
"We became aware of employee posts on social media regarding the shooting of Charlie Kirk that constituted a gross violation of our policy. Nasdaq maintains a zero-tolerance approach toward violence and any comments that endorse or promote it. The employee has been terminated effective immediately."

The Murder That Shocked America

Kirk, a polarizing conservative commentator and ardent supporter of former president Donald Trump, was shot dead on September 10 during a speech at a university in Utah. His death ignited a firestorm of reactions: while many on the right hailed him as a martyr for freedom, critics pointed to his history of inflammatory statements on issues such as systemic racism, election integrity, and gun rights.

President Trump, in a Fox News interview following the arrest of the shooter, declared his support for the death penalty in the case. The assassination has since become a flashpoint in America’s already fractured political landscape

A Wave of Social Media-Driven Dismissals

Nasdaq’s action was not isolated. Across the United States, several high-profile individuals have faced similar consequences for controversial remarks made online after Kirk’s death.

• MSNBC commentator Matthew Dowd, a former strategist for George W. Bush, was dismissed after suggesting during a live broadcast that Kirk’s rhetoric had contributed to the circumstances of his death.

• Pilots at American Airlines were suspended and removed from active duty for offensive online reactions.

• A teacher in Idaho and an employee of the NFL’s Carolina Panthers were also disciplined or terminated for inappropriate posts.

These incidents highlight a growing trend: employers increasingly act swiftly to distance themselves from employees whose social media activity is seen as celebrating violence or deepening political divides.

Free Speech vs. Corporate Responsibility

The dismissals have fueled a nationwide debate about the limits of free speech in a politically polarized society. Critics argue that punishing individuals for personal expressions—however offensive—threatens freedom of speech. Supporters counter that companies have not only the right but the obligation to protect their reputations and uphold workplace values by addressing conduct that appears to endorse violence.

The irony, many commentators note, is that the debate itself mirrors the very polarization it seeks to address. Rather than moving toward consensus, both sides seem more entrenched in their positions, underscoring the difficulty of navigating free expression in the age of social media.

A Broader Lesson on Digital Conduct

For Lisa Schmidt and others caught in the storm, the fallout is severe. In Schmidt’s case, her career in sustainability and ESG may be permanently scarred by one impulsive social media post. The incident serves as a cautionary tale: in today’s interconnected world, the line between personal opinions and professional consequences has

According to disclosures filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Moore purchased shares of the Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares ETF (TZA) in August. The fund is designed to deliver three times the inverse daily performance of the Russell 2000 index, meaning Moore stood to gain 3% for every 1% drop in small-cap stocks.

The filings show Moore invested at least $81,000 and potentially as much as $215,000 in four separate trades. While these figures fall within the broad reporting ranges required for members of Congress, they confirm his position was significant.

The revelation sparked a wave of criticism. Some commentators accused Moore of “betting against the American economy,” especially given his public support for Republican economic policies under Donald Trump.

A Hedging Strategy, or a Contradiction?

Moore’s critics point to the contradiction between his rhetoric and investments. However, the reality may be more complex. Alongside his bearish bets, Moore has also been active on the long side of the market, investing heavily in the Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares ETF (TNA), which moves three times higher when the Russell 2000 rises.

In July, Moore disclosed buying between $105,000 and $350,000 worth of TNA shares, while also selling between $100,000 and $250,000 of the same ETF. Earlier in 2025, he had traded even larger sums in TNA—investments ranging from $890,000 to $2.3 million on the buy side, and between $900,000 and $1.85 million on the sell side.

This dual exposure has led some observers to suggest Moore was simply hedging his positions, balancing bullish and bearish bets to manage risk until his holdings could qualify for long-term capital gains treatment.

Transparency Gaps in Congressional Trading

The controversy highlights a recurring issue: the limited transparency surrounding congressional trading. Under current rules, lawmakers must disclose transactions within broad dollar ranges, but they are not required to reveal exact amounts or the reasoning behind their trades.

This system makes it nearly impossible for the public to know the true scale of a lawmaker’s market exposure. In Moore’s case, only he knows the full extent of his long and short bets on the Russell 2000.

A Lawmaker and a Trader

Tim Moore has quickly become one of the most active traders in Congress since being sworn in on January 3, 2025. Reports suggest his total trading volume this year has already exceeded $11 million.

But this isn’t the first time Moore’s financial activities have raised eyebrows. According to Fortune, he previously failed to disclose trades worth hundreds of thousands of dollars in violation of the 2012 STOCK Act, which was designed to curb insider trading by members of Congress. Some of those trades coincided with major policy announcements, including the imposition of tariffs by Donald Trump.

The Bigger Picture

Whether Moore’s short bets on small caps represent a lack of faith in U.S. small businesses, a sophisticated hedge, or simple opportunism, the episode underscores growing unease about lawmakers trading stocks while shaping economic policy.

As calls mount for stricter rules—or even outright bans—on congressional trading, Tim Moore’s case may become another flashpoint in the ongoing debate over the intersection of politics, money, and markets

On Friday, September 12, Musk acquired 2.57 million Tesla shares, worth over $1 billion, through his Elon Musk Revocable Trust. The move came just weeks after Tesla granted him a massive $30 billion stock package in August as part of a temporary pay deal designed to keep him as CEO.

At first glance, buying shares on top of such a huge compensation plan may seem unnecessary. Especially since a new, even larger package is under discussion—potentially granting Musk 423 million shares over the next decade if Tesla achieves extremely ambitious milestones, including:

• reaching a $2 trillion and eventually an $8.5 trillion market cap,

• delivering 20 million cars,

• producing 1 million Optimus humanoid robots,

• and deploying 1 million robotaxis.

Shareholders are expected to vote on this package in November.

Stock Rally and Wealth Rankings

Musk’s latest purchase had an immediate impact on Tesla’s stock price. Shares jumped 7.36% on Friday, closing at $395.94, and gained another 8% in premarket trading on Monday, rising above $428.

The surge helped Musk regain his position as the world’s richest person, after briefly falling behind Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison the week before. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Musk’s net worth is now estimated at $419 billion, compared with Ellison’s $349 billion following a drop in Oracle’s share price.

Rare but Symbolic Move

This is Musk’s largest personal Tesla stock purchase in history by value, and it stands out because he rarely buys shares on the open market. The last time he did so was in February 2020, when he acquired 200,000 shares worth around $10 million. In contrast, he sold more than $20 billion worth of Tesla stock in 2022 to finance his takeover of Twitter (now X).

By putting his own money into Tesla at a pivotal moment, Musk is sending a strong message of confidence—to shareholders, markets, and competitors alike.

A Strategic Power Play

Beyond the numbers, Musk’s purchase is also about reputation and influence. Losing the “richest person” title, even briefly, to Ellison may have added an extra layer of motivation. By fueling Tesla’s rally, Musk not only increased his fortune but also strengthened the narrative that he remains the central figure driving Tesla’s growth story.

As markets await the shareholder vote in November, one thing is clear: Musk isn’t just betting on Tesla with company stock packages—he’s willing to stake billions of his personal fortune on its future as well.